Accelerating not Decelerating!
As we mentioned at the start of the article, one of the disadvantages of using trade analysis to reveal underlying market conditions is the lack of depth on individual market of end use segments, due to problems with data inconsistency. Fortunately, wiring harnesses (mainly automotive) is one product area where the trade data (HS code 854430xx) does permit a more precise view.
The pattern of world trade in wiring harnesses reveals that the weakest period so far this year was April, in the immediate aftermath of the Japanese earthquake / tsunami / Fukushima disasters. The events themselves, coupled with the subsequent interruption to power supplies and the disruption to the entire automotive parts and components supply chain resulted in a 5% year-on-year drop in world wiring harness import volumes.
But beginning in May (+3%), and gaining further momentum in July (+3%), growth has expanded to 7% year-on-year in August and September as the Japanese automotive industry has recovered and as growth elsewhere has remained good. This trend provides some explanation for the strong recent trend in sales that Leoni and other major wiring harness companies have been experiencing. There is no reason why we should not see this trend continue and perhaps even strengthen during Q4 2011. So at least for automotive component suppliers it is full speed ahead.
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